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2nd Quarter County Home Sales Surge. Prices May be Leveling Out Realtors Hope
Posted on Monday, July 09 @ 11:32:27 EDT by jfbailey
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WPCNR REAL ESTATE NEWS. Special to WPCNR from the Westchester-Putname Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service July 9, 2012 (EDITED)
The Westchester-Putnam real estate market posted an improved performance in April May June. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam division of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service reported 1,788 closed residential sales in Westchester County, and 177 sales in Putnam County, during the second quarter of 2012. These were increases of 13.0% and 23.8%, respectively, from the totals posted during the second quarter of 2011.
In Westchester, single family house sales led the improvement with a 16.7% increase. Condo sales were up by 12.8% and co-op sales by 7.0%. In Putnam County, single family house sales increased by 31.1%, albeit in comparison to very poor sales results last year.
The second quarter median sale price2 of a Westchester single family house was $619,000 – a slight decrease of 0.6% from last year. The $156,250 cooperative median was also down by 0.6% and the condominium median of $338,000 was down by 3.0% from a year ago. Mean2 (average) sales prices were down by roughly the same percentages; for example, the mean sale price of a Westchester house was $852,636, a decrease of 0.5% from last year.
When all the averages track in the same direction together, it often signifies that all price ranges and property types are being affected the same way.
In this case, gradual price reductions that appear close to bottoming out.
High-end properties, defined as those selling for $1 million or more, amounted to 22.7% of all single family house sales in Westchester, nearly the same ratio as was posted during the second quarters of 2011 and 2010.
On a seasonally adjusted1 basis, the second quarter sales in Westchester were equivalent to an annual sales rate of some 6,810 units, an increase of about 2% from the prior quarter. Taking the first quarter of 2012 into consideration as well, the likely year-end total if this pace of sales persists will be in the range of 6,700 – 6,900 units in Westchester and 650-700 units in Putnam, making 2012 the strongest year since the real estate recession gripped our region in 2008.
Prices start to level out?
The second quarter median sale price2 of a Westchester single family house was $619,000 – a slight decrease of 0.6% from last year. The $156,250 cooperative median was also down by 0.6% and the condominium median of $338,000 was down by 3.0% from a year ago. Mean2 (average) sales prices were down by roughly the same percentages; for example, the mean sale price of a Westchester house was $852,636, a decrease of 0.5% from last year.
When all the averages track in the same direction together, it often signifies that all price ranges and property types are being affected the same way, in this case, by ever more gradual price reductions that appear close to bottoming out.
High-end properties, defined as those selling for $1 million or more, amounted to 22.7% of all single family house sales in Westchester, nearly the same ratio as was posted during the second quarters of 2011 and 2010
.
In Putnam County, the median sale price of a single family house was $299,500, a $20,500 or 6.4% drop from last year. Putnam often lags Westchester on key volume and price indicators.
Inventory tightened. Market drivers give mixed signals.
There were 7,081 residential units listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service in Westchester at the close of the quarter, 11.5% fewer than last year. In Putnam County the decrease was 11.7%. The recent spurt in sales volume accounted for some of the constriction of inventory, but most of it remained due to the reticence of property owners to enter the housing market while economic conditions remained shaky.
The closings that are the subject of this report were largely listed and negotiated during the 2011-2012 winter months and early spring. At that time, mortgage interest rates were quite low – in the range of 4.2-4.3% for 30-year conventional loans. They have since dropped below 4.0%. However, the current inherent affordability of mortgage financing is offset to some extent by much tighter lending criteria.
Uncertainty in Employment
Uncertain Job growth and job security continue to worry consumer confidence in homebuying. Although unemployment in Westchester and Putnam is well below that of the nation or of New York State as a whole, it is still high here by historical standards.
Further, in the opening months of 2012 when some of these closed listings were headed to contract, Westchester’s unemployment rates began to exceed 2011’s levels – not by much, but enough to give pause to some prospective purchasers. And there still is not enough job growth to stimulate buying activity. The only truly positive indicator during that period was the improvement in the equities markets, especially the Dow Jones average, which we know subsequently lost all of its gains, plus more, by the beginning of June.
Still, these are conditions that existed some 3-4 months ago. There is much commentary by member Realtors in the field that there is very strong market activity right now which they are characterizing as release of pent-up demand. It will take another several months to know if all that showing and marketing activity results in a true, lasting market rebound.
1 The seasonally adjusted rate is an annualized rate for a given quarter. It represents what the total sales volume would be for the whole year based on prior quarters’ customary shares of total annual sales.
2 The median sale price is the mid-point of all reported sales, i.e., half of the properties sold for more than the median price and half for less. The median is not affected by unusually low or high sale prices. The mean sale price is the arithmetic average, i.e., the sum of all sales prices divided by the number of sales. The mean does reflect the influence of sales at unusually low or high prices.
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